Midterms are alleged to be the time for the opposition occasion to shine.
That ought to particularly be the case when there may be once-in-a-generation inflation and when the overwhelming majority of Individuals assume the nation is on the fallacious observe.
As a substitute, President Joe Biden and the Democrats are in place to have one of many 4 greatest midterms for the occasion controlling the White Home within the final century.
So what simply occurred?
The GOP’s “candidate downside”
Analysts, myself included, famous that Republicans appeared to have a candidate likability downside. Pre-election polling confirmed Republicans in all the important thing races had unfavourable internet favorability scores. Democrats had been broadly higher preferred than their opponents.
A lot of these Republicans had been endorsed by former President Donald Trump and had falsely claimed — at the least at one level — that they believed he received the 2020 election.
The exit polls bear out Republicans’ “candidate downside.” In each Senate race (save Georgia) that Inside Elections rated as a toss-up or solely tilting towards a celebration earlier than the election, extra voters mentioned the Republican candidate’s views had been too excessive than mentioned the identical for the Democrat.
We see this in gubernatorial elections, as effectively. Republicans nominated 2020 election deniers for governor in numerous blue or swing states. None of them has been projected a winner, and solely Republican Kari Lake of Arizona has any probability of successful.
Two presidents on the path
On the nationwide degree, there are two presidents within the highlight: the present one (Biden) and the previous (Trump). Each males sported unfavourable internet favorable scores, per the exit polls.
The truth that you could have a present president and a former president who’re each unpopular isn’t uncommon.
What’s uncommon is that of the 18% who considered neither Biden nor Trump favorably within the exit polls, 40% of them voted for Democrats. The backlash in opposition to one president this yr could have been canceled out by the backlash in opposition to the opposite.
“Abortion first” voters
Arguably, what really made this midterm distinctive was abortion. Regardless of excessive inflation, solely 31% of voters within the exit ballot mentioned it was a very powerful problem to their vote. A virtually an identical proportion (27%) mentioned abortion, and these voters overwhelmingly selected Democratic candidates for Congress.
This matches the dynamic we noticed within the special House elections following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June. Democrats began doing significantly higher than earlier than the Supreme Courtroom ruling.